The AUD/USD exchange rate rebounded and approached the year-to-date high following the interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The value increased to a peak of 0.6665, significantly surpassing this month’s low of 0.6440. The pair increased following the release of the minutes, which offered additional insights regarding the recent meeting where officials maintained interest rates at 3.60% for the third consecutive time. Officials defended the decision by highlighting that inflation was constrained, while the unemployment rate remained low by historical measures.
It was also observed that inflation remains elevated, with Governor Michele Bullock indicating that a rate increase could be on the table in 2026. Analysts believe that the bank may decide to hike as soon as in its February meeting, a decision that will depend on the upcoming inflation numbers. The AUD/USD exchange rate is poised to respond to the forthcoming US macroeconomic data, scheduled for release later today. One of these reports will be the US durable goods orders data, anticipated to register at -1.5%, which is below the median estimate of 0.5%.
The United States is set to release the most recent figures on durable goods orders along with the GDP report. Analysts anticipate that the forthcoming data will indicate an economic growth of 3.2% in the third quarter, a decrease from the 3.8% recorded in the preceding quarter. The other important macro indicators to monitor will be the consumer confidence and manufacturing and industrial production reports, which will provide further insight into the economy’s performance.
The daily chart indicates that the AUD/USD exchange rate reached a peak of 0.6560, significantly surpassing this month’s low of 0.6440. It is approaching its peak level this year of 0.6700, which was attained in September. The pair has surpassed the 50-day and 25-day Exponential Moving Averages. A double-bottom pattern has also been established, featuring a neckline positioned at 0.6705. A double-bottom represents a prevalent bullish reversal pattern in technical analysis. The Relative Strength Index and the Percentage Price Oscillator have shown an upward trend over the past few days. The prevailing outlook appears to be bullish, given the ongoing divergence between the Fed and the RBA. Should this occur, the pair could rise to 0.6800.