EUR/USD is currently positioned around 1.1770–1.1780, having encountered resistance near 1.1835 and pulling back from the 1.2100 level reached last month. The pair is currently positioned at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level following the rebound from the 200-day SMA at 1.1658, establishing the 1.1775–1.1770 range as a significant pivot point. The present range is 1.1750–1.1830. A daily close beneath 1.1745–1.1740 sets the stage for 1.1695 and 1.1680, whereas a decisive move above 1.1835 aims for 1.1930 and subsequently the 1.2050–1.2100 area. The USD side remains strong. The dollar index is currently positioned around 97.80–97.90, surpassing the 0.618 retracement level at 97.61 from the low of 95.54 and following a rising trendline established since late January. The price has been establishing higher lows above the 97.21 support level; however, upward momentum continues to falter at a descending trendline near the 98.00–98.10 range, which is derived from the peak of 99.79. The 50-period moving average has increased to approximately 97.50, whereas the 200-period average is hovering around 97.80. The cluster supports a strong yet measured stance in EUR/USD, indicating stability rather than a downturn. The Supreme Court’s decision to reject the use of the emergency powers act for significant portions of the tariff program did not eliminate tariff risk. The administration is currently shifting towards a 15% global tariff framework and initiating new enquiries under Section 232 and Section 301. Public statements indicate that there will be increased levies if partners use the court ruling as a pretext to delay transactions. The European Union has once more halted the implementation of its trade agreement.
For EUR/USD, this indicates that tariff uncertainty continues to be a factor. The dollar continues to attract safe-haven interest, whereas concerns regarding exports and growth restrict the potential for EUR appreciation, particularly on advances beyond the 1.18–1.19 range. The outlook for policy appears to support the USD. The markets indicate a minimal probability of a rate cut during the March meeting, with expectations of approximately 50 basis points of easing projected for 2026, suggesting a shallow cycle ahead. The 10-year US yield is positioned around 4%, while the dollar index remains in the vicinity of 97.8 to 98.0. Federal Reserve speakers link any potential easing to concrete data instead of making prior commitments. The prevailing conditions maintain a favourable carry profile for the dollar. The EUR/USD pair is experiencing a rally towards the 1.18–1.19 range, where it is likely to encounter sellers instead of new momentum buyers. On the EUR side, the upcoming significant data point is the German HICP for February, anticipated to be around +0.5% month-on-month following a -0.1% figure in January and approximately 2.1% year-on-year. This maintains inflation near the 2% objective. Public comments from the central bank emphasise that policy is “in a good place,” indicating no immediate need to ease or tighten. This position mitigates the risk of a dovish surprise while failing to generate a bullish momentum for EUR. In the absence of a distinct growth or yield surprise, EUR/USD does not possess the necessary momentum to achieve a sustained advance beyond the 1.19–1.20 range.
The EUR/USD chart exhibits characteristics of a compression triangle. A descending trendline from the 1.2050 high limits the upside potential; an ascending line from the mid-January lows provides support for the downside movement. The price is currently confined within the range of 1.1750 to 1.1830. Key levels are prominent. The 1.2100 zone signifies the latest significant peak. The 1.1930 level represents the monthly high and serves as the initial target should 1.1835 be breached. The current intraday ceiling is established at the 1.1835 level. The 1.1785–1.1810 range contains short-term moving averages that consistently negate upward spikes. The 1.1750 and 1.1745–1.1740 area establishes the foundational support level. The 1.1695 area corresponds with the 78.6% retracement level, while 1.1658 represents the 200-day SMA that delineates the broader trend. The MACD is currently positioned in negative territory, with the line situated below the signal line near the zero axis. Meanwhile, the RSI at approximately 46 indicates a slight bearish momentum, yet it does not suggest oversold conditions. The current mix indicates potential for additional downside tests, while the long-term framework stays solid above 1.1658. The order flow near 1.1775 indicates a market actively engaging within the range. Consistent setbacks around 1.1810–1.1835 suggest a structured approach to selling from entities utilising this range to reduce their EUR/USD positions. A break and close above 1.1835 could activate stops and lead to a rapid movement toward 1.1900–1.1930. Should the market close daily below 1.1745–1.1740, it would indicate a violation of both the 61.8% retracement level and last week’s low, thereby exposing the levels at 1.1695 and the range of 1.1680–1.1700.
Market attention shifts to the 1.1658 200-day SMA. Systematic strategies and hedge adjustments typically gain momentum once these structural levels are breached, indicating that a break is unlikely to occur gradually. The most recent annualised growth rate of 1.4% quarter-on-quarter marks the lowest point since mid-2025, representing a notable downside surprise. Currently, EUR/USD is not positioned at 1.19–1.20; it remains constrained around 1.1780. The rationale lies in the overarching trend. This softer figure comes after a series of robust data, leading markets to interpret it as a cautionary signal rather than definitive evidence of a downturn. The curve currently reflects approximately 50 basis points of anticipated cuts for the year. The interplay of these factors limits additional dollar strength, yet it does not necessitate a shift in the prevailing trend. For the pair, this indicates limited potential for a significant USD increase, while there remains no strong argument for a lasting euro advance. Risk scenarios shift the dynamics unfavourably for EUR/USD. Tariffs are transitioning from one legal framework to another instead of being eliminated. The European Union has once more delayed the implementation of its trade deal. The potential for a US strike on Iran remains a significant concern, as it could adversely affect energy markets and overall risk sentiment. These themes typically influence capital movements towards the USD and exert greater pressure on Europe due to energy expenses and export vulnerabilities.
The current skew suggests that negative headlines are more inclined to push the pair down to 1.1750, potentially reaching 1.17 and 1.1658, rather than allowing it to rise smoothly above 1.19–1.20. Short-term candles around 1.1780 exhibit diminished ranges and compact bodies, indicating a compression of volatility. Energy is accumulating within the 1.1750–1.1830 range. A close below 1.1740 would likely necessitate hedge adjustments and new short interest, pushing EUR/USD toward 1.1695 and 1.1680–1.1700. A sustained move above 1.1835, especially if paired with a decline in the dollar index below 97.60 and a subtle easing in the Fed’s tone, would trigger stop clusters and pave the way to 1.1900–1.1930. Until that break, options positioning and range strategies are prevalent; however, the longer the squeeze persists, the more pronounced the eventual move is likely to be. Analysing the current landscape – EUR/USD is maintaining a position close to 1.1780, reflecting a 61.8% retracement. The USD finds support in the range of 97.8–98.0 on the index, while tariffs are shifting rather than diminishing. US growth stands at 1.4%, yet it remains supported by rising yields. The Federal Reserve maintains a steady approach, and the central bank in the eurozone is indicating satisfaction with its current policy. Additionally, a clearly defined triangle between 1.1750 and 1.1830 suggests a downward bias in the market direction. The outlook is negative for EUR/USD, indicating a distinct inclination to sell during price increases rather than to buy or maintain positions. Moves into 1.1810–1.1835 present opportunities to capitalise on strength, with attention directed towards 1.1700 and subsequently 1.1680–1.1695 as reasonable downside targets. The 1.1658 200-day SMA continues to serve as the crucial structural line. While the price remains under 1.1835 and does not manage to regain 1.1930, the pair continues to operate within a sell-rally framework, rather than entering a phase of sustained recovery.