The AUD/USD pair surged to its peak since October 2024 following the release of Australia’s most recent consumer inflation report. The asset reached a peak of 0.6765 before retreating to the present level of 0.6723 as market participants shift their attention to the forthcoming US jobs report. The AUD/USD pair experienced an increase before retracting some of those gains following the release of Australia’s most recent inflation report. Data released on Wednesday indicated that the headline Consumer Price Index decreased from 3.8% in October to 3.4% in November. The trimmed mean CPI decreased from 3.3% to 3.2%, whereas the weighted mean inflation held steady at 3.4%. The data indicates that Australia’s inflation continues to significantly exceed the RBA’s target of 2%.
Consequently, the most probable outcome is that the RBA will keep interest rates steady at 3.6%. Some experts believe that the bank will increase rates as reducing them would lead to higher prices. The AUD/USD pair responded to the recent ADP report, which indicated that the economy gained 41k jobs in December following a loss of 29k jobs in the prior month. Another jobs report indicated that the number of job openings decreased to 7.146 million in November, down from the prior figure of 7.44 million. This report, though significant, is frequently regarded as a lagging indicator.
The upcoming key data to monitor will be the most recent report on initial and continuing jobless claims. Additionally, the United States is set to publish the most recent figures on exports and imports. This week’s most significant data release will be the official non-farm payrolls figures. Analysts anticipate that the upcoming data will reveal an addition of 60k jobs in December, a decrease from the prior figure of 65k.
The daily chart indicates that the AUD/USD pair has experienced an upward trend over the past few weeks. The movement has been from a low of 0.6421 on November 21 to a high of 0.6764. The pair surpassed the significant resistance level at 0.6705, marking its peak since December of the previous year. A cup-and-handle pattern has emerged, indicating a typical bullish continuation signal. The pair continues to trade above the 50-day moving average and the Supertrend indicator. Consequently, the most probable projection indicates a continued ascent as bullish investors aim for the psychological threshold at 0.6800. A decline beneath the support level of 0.6685 will negate the positive forecast.