The AUD/USD exchange rate experienced a modest increase to 0.7030 on Monday, as market participants monitored the continuing conflict in Iran, rising crude oil prices, and the forthcoming consumer inflation report. The asset has surged from this month’s low of 0.6945. The AUD/USD exchange rate remained stable as market participants responded to the continuing conflict in Iran, which has resulted in a surge of over 50% in crude oil and natural gas prices this year. Gasoline prices in the US have shown a persistent upward trend this year. Energy prices are likely to see an upward trend this week due to the ongoing conflict and the intensified targeting of oil infrastructure. The increase is expected to result in elevated inflation levels in both the United States and Australia.
Consequently, the forthcoming US consumer inflation report is unlikely to significantly influence the pair, as investors are concentrating on the ramifications of the conflict. Analysts anticipate that the forthcoming data will reveal the headline Consumer Price Index remaining steady at 2.5%, consistent with January’s figure of 2.5%. The core consumer inflation is anticipated to register at 2.5%. The upcoming inflation report is set to be released shortly after the latest non-farm payrolls data from the US. The report indicated a decline of 92,000 jobs in the economy, with the unemployment rate experiencing a slight increase to 4.3%.
The upcoming Australian consumer confidence and building permits numbers will serve as another important catalyst for the AUD/USD pair. Analysts anticipate that the forthcoming data will indicate a decline in consumer confidence by 2.6% in March, attributed to persistent high inflation levels. Australia’s building permits are projected to increase by 1.1%. The daily timeframe chart indicates that the AUD/USD pair maintained its position at the significant resistance level of 0.7030. The asset has increased from the low of 0.6945 observed earlier this month.
The pair continues to trade above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average and the Ichimoku cloud indicator. It has surged past the Supertrend indicator. The pair has established a bullish flag pattern, consisting of a vertical line and a channel. Consequently, the pair is expected to maintain its upward trajectory as buyers aim for the upper boundary of the channel at 0.7142. A decline beneath the critical support level at 0.6945 will negate the optimistic perspective.